Monday, November 25, 2013

Monday's Forecast

Discussion: The Arctic High which has been providing the region with extremely cold weather will move east off the coast on Monday, with flow backing to the Southwest.  This will usher in some relief to the winter-like temperatures.  Meanwhile on Monday, a cutoff low over the desert Southwest begins to move eastward, advecting moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico and triggering convection on the Gulf Coast. By Monday night a surface low will develop along the baroclinic zone in the Gulf, and begin moving up through the Southeast states.  On Tuesday, an upper shortwave trough will come down through the upper Plains and begin to interact with the surface cyclone.  Tuesday night and Wednesday the surface cyclone will undergo self-development, bringing potentially flooding rains and strong winds to much of the Eastern states, with a significant snow/wintry mix event for western PA/western NY/parts of northern New England.  Precip tapers off late Wednesday night as cold air rushes in behind the low.  Windy and cold for Thanksgiving with a flurry possible.  
MondayMon Night
Sunny and chilly.  High 39°F.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 33°F.  
TuesdayTues Night WednesdayWed Night
Increasing clouds.  High 44°F.   Rain, heavy at times after midnight.  Becoming increasingly windy with gusts up to 45 mph late.  Temperatures warming into the 50s.  Heavy windswept rain.  Winds may gust as high as 50 mph.  Significant rainfall totals possible.  High 55°F.    Rain tapering off.  Slight chance of a flurry.  Windy.  Low 28°F. 

Forecaster: Mike Colbert

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